Tracked Frontier & Open Models
15
Opus/Sonnet 5.5, Fable 5.1, Argon 4, GPT-6, DeepSeek V4
Turn 5 Survivability Leader
Claude Opus 5.5 / Sonnet 5.5
77.0% Combined Turn-5 Share (+36.8% Over Noise)
Search Noise Floor (Control Path)
41.6% Drop Rate
Calibrated via "Repeat" Control (95% CI: 34.5–49.1%)
Proven Prophet Signals
3 Stat-Sig / 1 Shadow
Enforced |t| ≥ 1.96, p < 0.05, N ≥ 45
Hermes Web Proxy · 🇺🇸 US Collection Fleet:
ChatGPT · 🇺🇸 US (5-Turn context_carry)
Gemini · 🇺🇸 US (5-Turn context_carry)
Google AI Mode · 🇺🇸 US (5-Turn context_carry)
Google AI Overviews · 🇺🇸 US (1-Turn SERP)
Bing AI Mode · 🇺🇸 US (5-Turn context_carry)
Perplexity (Paused 3 Nov)
| Model | Role Tier | Turn 1 (Entry) | Turn 3 (Shortlist) | Turn 5 (Winner + 95% Wilson CI) | Excess Over 41.6% Noise | 5-Stage Funnel [T1..T5] | US Lane Share (GPT / Gem / AIMode / Bing) | Cited Evidence Domains |
|---|